Jared (![[info]](http://p-stat.livejournal.com/img/userinfo.gif){kind=small} explorerscout83) wrote,@ 2008-03-27 20:55:00 |
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Clinton Struggling With Her Likability Problem
If the story of last week's polls was how tough a month March had been for Illinois Sen. Barack Obama, a headline in many of this week's polls is that New York Sen. Hillary Rodman Clinton suffers from a pronounced, if not entirely new, problem - she rubs a lot of people the wrong way.
That is coming more to the fore because nearly all the polls indicate that Obama is moving beyond his big problem - the controversy over the rhetoric of his ex-pastor, Jeremiah Wright.
Although a large chunk of voters still say they are personally offended by Wright's remarks,a Pew Research Center survey released Thursday reported that fifty-one percent of all voters said Obama did an excellent or good job of handling the controversy versus 42 percent who said he did not. About two-thirds of Democrats gave him good marks, about two-thirds of Republicans gave him poor marks, and independents were more evenly split.
The Pew Survey and one released yesterday by NBC News and the Wall Street Journal concluded that the Wright controversy had not caused lasting damage to Obama's campaign based on the fact that Obama had not lost ground in the horse race against Clinton and Arizona Sen. John McCain.
However, Pew differs from yesterday's NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll in the numbers. The Pew Survey, conducted March 19-22, says Obama is ahead of Clinton 49 percent to 39 percent, with a 5.5 percent margin of error where yesterday's NBC/Journal poll had them deadlocked at 45 percent each. That poll was conducted March 24-25. Gallup's daily tracking poll, conducted March 24-26 has Obama ahead 48 percent to 44 percent with a 3 point margin of error.
But one race Obama is winning by the numbers is the favorability race whether the measure is positive/negative reactions to the two, or traits that voters like or dislike about each.
Here's a collection of findings on this score from a range of polls:
- Obama bests Clinton among Democratic voters by margins of 15 percent to 20 percent on the traits of being "down to earth," "inspiring" and "honest," according to Pew. More Democrats think Clinton is "phony" and "hard to like" than they do about Obama.
- Pew said the things Democrats most dislike about Clinton are her personality, the idea that she has "too much baggage," and that she is too ambitious.
- Again Pew: Demonstrating Obama's appeal beyond just Democrats, 70 percent of all voters say they find him inspiring, 67 percent say he is down-to-earth, and 65 percent say he is honest. More than half of Republicans agreed on the first two traits and 46 percent agreed on honesty. The figures for all voters were roughly the same as the figures for independents.
- The NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll said 48 percent of Democrats in its survey viewed Clinton as somewhat or very negative versus 37 percent who had very or somewhat positive perceptions of her. Two weeks ago, 45 percent viewed her positively, and 43 percent viewed her negatively. Obama is viewed positively by 49 percent of voters and negatively by 32 percent.
- In a USA Today/Gallup poll conducted March 14-16, forty-four percent of those surveyed said they considered Clinton honest and trustworthy while 53 percent did not. By contrast, McCain was considered honest and trustworthy by a 67 percent to 27 percent margin, and Obama was close at 63 percent to 29 percent.
- A Quinnipiac University poll of Connecticut voters found that 47 percent of all voters viewed her unfavorably to 46 percent who viewed her favorably. Obama's favorability rating was 59 to 24 percent and McCain's was 52 percent to 31 percent. A quarter of Clinton detractors in the poll said she was dishonest.
- A Public Policy Institute of California poll in that state today reported that Obama's favorability rating is 61 positive percent to 34 percent negative, McCain's is 49 percent to 45 percent and those with unfavorable opinions of Clinton outnumber the favorables 52 percent to 45 percent.
Obama is not without his own baggage. Fifty-five percent of all voters in the NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll said the rhetoric of Obama's ex-pastor disturbed them a great deal or somewhat, with 59 percent of white voters and 34 percent of black voters holding that opinion.
Of the 69 percent of voters who saw or heard Obama's speech on race, 55 percent said they were satisfied with his explanation of his association with Wright, while 32 percent were dissatisfied. White voters were satisfied by a 55 percent to 35 percent margin while black voters were satisfied by 77 percent to 9 percent. Forty-seven percent of all voters who saw the speech said Obama had sufficiently addressed the issue but 37 percent said he had not.
In the context of the Wright controversy, about a quarter of voters said they knew too little about Obama's background and views.
And in today's Pew poll, when asked what made them uneasy about Obama, 29 percent said experience and naivety, 21 percent named the Wright controversy, 13 percent said he was "all talk" and not substantive, while 11 percent were uneasy with his ideology and stand on issues.
Another element common to the polls of the last two days is that McCain and whoever is the Democratic nominee will face an electorate that is more pessimistic and negative about the economy and direction of the country than has been the case in years.
Americans are as negative about the economy as they were during the big recession of the early 1990s, Pew reported. Dissatisfaction with the direction of the country is at its highest in any Pew survey since 1993.
In the PPIC California poll, 73 percent of all voters believed the country was heading in the wrong direction, and among them, that view was held by 80 percent of Democrats, 60 percent of Republicans and 77 percent of independents. Similarly, 76 percent of all adults in California are bracing for bad economic times in the next 12 months, a view shared almost equally among all voter groups.
With a picture like that she is shocked her likability
If the story of last week's polls was how tough a month March had been for Illinois Sen. Barack Obama, a headline in many of this week's polls is that New York Sen. Hillary Rodman Clinton suffers from a pronounced, if not entirely new, problem - she rubs a lot of people the wrong way.
That is coming more to the fore because nearly all the polls indicate that Obama is moving beyond his big problem - the controversy over the rhetoric of his ex-pastor, Jeremiah Wright.
Although a large chunk of voters still say they are personally offended by Wright's remarks,a Pew Research Center survey released Thursday reported that fifty-one percent of all voters said Obama did an excellent or good job of handling the controversy versus 42 percent who said he did not. About two-thirds of Democrats gave him good marks, about two-thirds of Republicans gave him poor marks, and independents were more evenly split.
The Pew Survey and one released yesterday by NBC News and the Wall Street Journal concluded that the Wright controversy had not caused lasting damage to Obama's campaign based on the fact that Obama had not lost ground in the horse race against Clinton and Arizona Sen. John McCain.
However, Pew differs from yesterday's NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll in the numbers. The Pew Survey, conducted March 19-22, says Obama is ahead of Clinton 49 percent to 39 percent, with a 5.5 percent margin of error where yesterday's NBC/Journal poll had them deadlocked at 45 percent each. That poll was conducted March 24-25. Gallup's daily tracking poll, conducted March 24-26 has Obama ahead 48 percent to 44 percent with a 3 point margin of error.
But one race Obama is winning by the numbers is the favorability race whether the measure is positive/negative reactions to the two, or traits that voters like or dislike about each.
Here's a collection of findings on this score from a range of polls:
- Obama bests Clinton among Democratic voters by margins of 15 percent to 20 percent on the traits of being "down to earth," "inspiring" and "honest," according to Pew. More Democrats think Clinton is "phony" and "hard to like" than they do about Obama.
- Pew said the things Democrats most dislike about Clinton are her personality, the idea that she has "too much baggage," and that she is too ambitious.
- Again Pew: Demonstrating Obama's appeal beyond just Democrats, 70 percent of all voters say they find him inspiring, 67 percent say he is down-to-earth, and 65 percent say he is honest. More than half of Republicans agreed on the first two traits and 46 percent agreed on honesty. The figures for all voters were roughly the same as the figures for independents.
- The NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll said 48 percent of Democrats in its survey viewed Clinton as somewhat or very negative versus 37 percent who had very or somewhat positive perceptions of her. Two weeks ago, 45 percent viewed her positively, and 43 percent viewed her negatively. Obama is viewed positively by 49 percent of voters and negatively by 32 percent.
- In a USA Today/Gallup poll conducted March 14-16, forty-four percent of those surveyed said they considered Clinton honest and trustworthy while 53 percent did not. By contrast, McCain was considered honest and trustworthy by a 67 percent to 27 percent margin, and Obama was close at 63 percent to 29 percent.
- A Quinnipiac University poll of Connecticut voters found that 47 percent of all voters viewed her unfavorably to 46 percent who viewed her favorably. Obama's favorability rating was 59 to 24 percent and McCain's was 52 percent to 31 percent. A quarter of Clinton detractors in the poll said she was dishonest.
- A Public Policy Institute of California poll in that state today reported that Obama's favorability rating is 61 positive percent to 34 percent negative, McCain's is 49 percent to 45 percent and those with unfavorable opinions of Clinton outnumber the favorables 52 percent to 45 percent.
Obama is not without his own baggage. Fifty-five percent of all voters in the NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll said the rhetoric of Obama's ex-pastor disturbed them a great deal or somewhat, with 59 percent of white voters and 34 percent of black voters holding that opinion.
Of the 69 percent of voters who saw or heard Obama's speech on race, 55 percent said they were satisfied with his explanation of his association with Wright, while 32 percent were dissatisfied. White voters were satisfied by a 55 percent to 35 percent margin while black voters were satisfied by 77 percent to 9 percent. Forty-seven percent of all voters who saw the speech said Obama had sufficiently addressed the issue but 37 percent said he had not.
In the context of the Wright controversy, about a quarter of voters said they knew too little about Obama's background and views.
And in today's Pew poll, when asked what made them uneasy about Obama, 29 percent said experience and naivety, 21 percent named the Wright controversy, 13 percent said he was "all talk" and not substantive, while 11 percent were uneasy with his ideology and stand on issues.
Another element common to the polls of the last two days is that McCain and whoever is the Democratic nominee will face an electorate that is more pessimistic and negative about the economy and direction of the country than has been the case in years.
Americans are as negative about the economy as they were during the big recession of the early 1990s, Pew reported. Dissatisfaction with the direction of the country is at its highest in any Pew survey since 1993.
In the PPIC California poll, 73 percent of all voters believed the country was heading in the wrong direction, and among them, that view was held by 80 percent of Democrats, 60 percent of Republicans and 77 percent of independents. Similarly, 76 percent of all adults in California are bracing for bad economic times in the next 12 months, a view shared almost equally among all voter groups.
With a picture like that she is shocked her likability
